Republican Opposition to the Bailout

The conventional wisdom is that Democrats benefit when the conversation turns to the economy. You might think that the opposition of conservative Republican House members to the bailout could provide a boost to McCain's campaign insofar as it distances him from Bush, who is pushing the plan. But to make that work, I think McCain would have to be (far) more comfortable discussing economic issues than he is. So I think McCain still loses on this.

Buck Naked Politics has a good summary.

Funky Intrade Contracts

Nate Silver thinks someone is gaming Obama and McCain contracts at Intrade.

Right now, Obama is trading at 52.3 points. That is, Intrade implies that he has a 52.3 percent chance to become the next President.

Now, I happen to think that is a patently absurd price. But you don't have to take my word for it. Over at BetFair, another large UK-based gambling and futures site, you can also buy an Obama contract. But the price there is 1.62, which implies a 61.7 percent chance that Obama will become the next President.

I agree that Obama has a better than 52% chance of winning. Worth a look.